Jose Dominguez Alonso vs Pavel Lagutin

Highlights

• • Home implied breakeven probability is 9.09%; we estimate ~12%.
• • Positive EV of +0.32 per unit at the current 11.0 price.

Pros

• + Significant mispricing vs. conservative estimated win probability.
• + Both players' limited clay records increase upset likelihood (higher variance).

Cons

• - Very small sample sizes in match history make probability estimates noisy.
• - Market may reflect undisclosed factors (fitness, withdrawal, matchup specifics) not present in the provided research.

Details

We find value on Jose Dominguez Alonso at 11.0. The market implies a ~9.09% chance for the home player (1/11) while the away favorite is priced at an implied ~96.15% (1/1.04). The research shows both players have very limited pro records on clay (Jose 2-4 across 6 matches including clay; Pavel 3-4 across 7 matches including clay) and recent form is modest for both. Given the small sample sizes, the surface exposure to clay for both, and the near-parity in recorded results at lower levels, the bookmaker's extremely compressed price for Pavel appears to overstate his true win probability. Conservatively estimating Jose's true chance at 12% yields positive expected value at the current 11.0 price (EV = 0.12*11 - 1 = +0.32). We therefore recommend backing the home player only because the available decimal price exceeds the minimum required to justify that probability.

Key factors

• • Both players have limited match samples and similar low-level records on clay (Jose 2-4, Pavel 3-4).
• • Bookmaker price heavily favors the away player to an extreme degree (1.04), implying a near-certain outcome that is unlikely given the available form data.
• • Small samples and clay experience increase upset variance, making a ~12% upset probability plausible and profitable at 11.0.