Joshua Charlton vs Scott Jones
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices — the favorite (Charlton) is priced too short and the underdog (Jones) not priced long enough relative to our probability estimates.
Highlights
- • Charlton slight edge in experience/sample size but not large enough to justify 1.70
- • Market implies a >58% chance for Charlton while we estimate ~47%
Pros
- + Clear, conservative probability model based on available career records and recent mixed form
- + Avoids wagering on a market where implied odds exceed our probability estimate
Cons
- - Limited recent-match detail and no H2H data reduce confidence
- - If additional contextual factors (surface, local conditions, injuries) exist but were not provided, our estimate could shift
Details
We estimate this as an extremely close matchup with Joshua Charlton a marginal favorite based on a slightly larger sample (16-22 across 38 matches) versus Scott Jones (6-9 across 15 matches) and broader surface exposure. Charlton's career win rate (approx. 42%) and Jones' win rate (approx. 40%) point to near-equal chances; recent results listed for both are mixed with no clear momentum advantage and no H2H to separate them. The market prices (Home 1.70, Away 2.05) imply probabilities of ~58.8% and ~48.8% respectively. Our best estimate for Charlton's true win probability is ~47.0%, which would require ~2.128 in decimal odds to break even. At the current home price of 1.70 the expected return is negative (EV ≈ -0.201 per unit), so there is no value on the favorite. Similarly, to back Jones with value you would need him to be >48.8% likely to win; we estimate him lower than that, so the 2.05 price also lacks value. We therefore recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Similar career win rates and limited separation in form
- • Charlton has a larger match sample and wider surface experience
- • Current market-implied probability on favorite (1.70) is substantially higher than our estimated true probability