Joshua Peck vs Samuel De Felipe Garcia

Highlights

• • Peck's recent results on clay are poor despite market favoritism
• • Current away price (1.952) implies slightly less probability than our estimated true chance

Pros

• + Small positive EV at available price (EV ≈ +0.015)
• + Market appears to overvalue Peck relative to documented recent form

Cons

• - Edge is small and rests on limited data; a few missing inputs (injury/H2H/full form for Garcia) increase uncertainty
• - Small EV is vulnerable to bookmaker margin and late line movement

Details

We find slight value on Samuel De Felipe Garcia. The market prices Joshua Peck as the favorite at 1.775 (implied ~56.3%), but the only objective form data provided shows Peck with a losing overall record (6-11) and a string of recent losses on clay, which reduces confidence in the market's favoritism. Given the limited data, we conservatively estimate Garcia's true win probability at 52.0%. At the available away price of 1.952 this produces a small positive expected value (EV = 0.52 * 1.952 - 1 ≈ 0.015). That edge is modest but real under our assumptions; it stems from the market overrating Peck relative to his recent results on clay and the absence of contrary evidence for Garcia.

Key factors

• • Peck's published recent record is weak (6-11) with multiple recent losses on clay
• • Match surface is outdoor clay, where Peck's recent form does not inspire confidence
• • Market prices favor Peck (1.775) creating a small pricing inefficiency in Garcia's favor at 1.952