Joshua Sheehy vs Erik Arutiunian
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices — Arutiunian is the closer favorite on paper but lacks documented grass experience, and the available odds do not exceed our breakeven threshold.
Highlights
- • Arutiunian favored by market (1.794) but needs ~1.887 to represent value against our 53% estimate
- • Sheehy's grass experience narrows the matchup despite an inferior overall record
Pros
- + Arutiunian's stronger career record suggests he is the likely favorite in neutral conditions
- + Market is pricing Arutiunian as the favorite, reflecting that perceived edge
Cons
- - Arutiunian has no documented grass experience in the provided profile — this is a material uncertainty
- - Small-sample / limited head-to-head and qualifier-level volatility increase outcome variance
Details
We compare career records, surface experience, and the current moneyline. Erik Arutiunian has a stronger overall record (33-22) versus Joshua Sheehy (22-23) and is priced as the market favorite at 1.794. However, Arutiunian's activity is concentrated on hard and clay in the provided profile and there is no documented grass experience, while Sheehy has played on grass. That surface edge for Sheehy narrows the gap and introduces downside risk to Arutiunian's implied probability. We estimate Arutiunian's true win probability at ~53%, which requires decimal odds ≈1.887 to breakeven. At the available away price of 1.794 the expected value is negative (EV ≈ -0.049), so there is no value to back either player at the displayed prices given our probability view.
Key factors
- • Arutiunian has a superior overall win-loss record (33-22) compared with Sheehy (22-23)
- • Sheehy has recorded grass match experience while Arutiunian's profile lists clay and hard only
- • Current market prices (Arutiunian 1.794) imply a higher win probability than we assign given surface uncertainty