Highlights

• • Market implies >52% win chance for either side to be +EV
• • We estimate ~50% true win probability for both players given available data

Pros

• + Match is evenly balanced—outcomes are plausible for either player
• + If better odds (>=2.00) appear on either side, value would emerge

Cons

• - No grass-court data for either player increases unpredictability
• - Current prices are below required break-even odds, producing negative EV

Details

We find no value at current prices. Both players have very similar career records (Simundza 19-22, Miletich 20-23) and neither profile shows notable grass experience, so surface advantage is unknown and increases uncertainty. Market moneylines (Home 1.901, Away 1.87) imply break-even win probabilities of ~52.7% and ~53.5% respectively, but given the interchangeable form, lack of grass record, no clear H2H edge, and mixed recent results we estimate a true win probability close to 50% for either player. Using a 50% true probability, the current prices produce a negative expected return (e.g., EV at home odds 1.901 = 0.5*1.901 - 1 = -0.0495), so we do not recommend taking either side.

Key factors

• • Neither player shows grass-court experience in the provided profiles
• • Career records and recent form are nearly identical and non‑decisive
• • Market odds are near 50/50 and require >52.6% (home) or >53.5% (away) to be profitable