Highlights

• • Market requires ≥91.74% true probability to be +EV at 1.09; we estimate 85%
• • Research lacks differentiators (form, injury, surface, H2H) to justify market pricing

Pros

• + Heavy favorite reduces absolute upset risk
• + Available price (1.09) is broadly reflective of market consensus

Cons

• - Price is too short to offer positive expected value vs our probability model
• - Research is inconclusive and symmetric, increasing uncertainty in extreme-market spots

Details

We compare the market moneyline (home 1.09 implied ~91.7%) to our independent estimate of the home player's chance to win (~85%). The market price requires a true win probability >= 91.74% to be profitable at 1.09; our assessment (85%) is well below that threshold, producing a negative expected value at current prices. The research provided is symmetric and offers no solid differentiators (surface edge, injury, strong recent form or H2H advantage) that would justify believing the home win probability exceeds the market-implied level. Therefore we do not recommend backing the favorite at 1.09.

Key factors

• • Market-implied home probability very high (≈91.7%) at 1.09
• • Research provides symmetric career/profiles and no clear advantage for either player
• • No injury, surface advantage or H2H data to justify beating the market margin