Highlights

• • Market-implied probability: ~66.2% (1.51)
• • Our estimated true probability for Josy: 60% → needs ≥1.667 odds for breakeven

Pros

• + Josy is the market favourite and likely marginally stronger in this matchup
• + Home/venue advantage may provide a small edge

Cons

• - Current price (1.51) does not offer value vs our probability model
• - Research shows both players with similar career records and recent losses, limiting informational advantage

Details

We see the market pricing Josy Daems as a clear favourite at 1.51 (implied ~66.2%). From the available profiles both players have nearly identical career records and very similar recent results (both showing recent losses), so there is no strong performance signal to justify a >66% true win probability for Josy. Allowing for a modest home/seed advantage we estimate Josy's true win probability around 60%, which is well below the market-implied probability. At the current price (1.51) this produces a negative expected value, so we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.51) is ~66.2%, higher than our estimated true probability
• • Both players show very similar career records and recent form in the provided data, reducing informational edge
• • Modest home advantage considered but not enough to justify market price