Jozef Kovalik vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value: Tirante is correctly priced as a strong favorite and the price for Kovalik is not long enough relative to the likely gap in quality to offer exploitable value.
Highlights
- • Market price for Tirante (1.282) is too short vs our ~70% win estimate
- • Underdog price (3.7) does not compensate sufficiently for the quality and form gap
Pros
- + Tirante has higher volume and a superior win-loss record, supporting market favoritism
- + If one wants to speculate, Kovalik’s long price reflects a non-zero upset chance
Cons
- - Current favorite odds leave negative EV versus our probability estimate
- - Insufficient evidence in the provided profiles to justify rating Kovalik’s true chance above the level required for positive EV
Details
We compared the market prices to our assessment of each player's win chances using only the provided profiles. Thiago Agustin Tirante is a clear favorite in the market (1.282) and has a substantially better career record and match volume (52-32 vs Kovalik 13-26) plus recent winning form; we estimate he is likely to win but the book price is too short to offer value. Jozef Kovalik's career win rate is lower overall but his raw win percentage (about one-third) means the long price (3.7) looks tempting at first glance; however, given Tirante's superior form and match experience, we do not see a justified true probability for Kovalik high enough to produce reliable positive EV at the quoted 3.7. In short, neither side offers positive expected value once we align the market price with a conservative true-probability estimate for Tirante, so we decline to recommend a bet.
Key factors
- • Tirante has a substantially better career record and recent form (52-32) versus Kovalik (13-26)
- • Market heavily favors Tirante (1.282), leaving little margin for value on the favorite
- • Surface and recent match entries in the profiles show activity but do not indicate a material upset edge for Kovalik