Jozef Kovalik vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

Highlights

• • Away (Tirante) implied probability 67.2% vs our estimate 62% — no value
• • Home (Kovalik) price would need a materially higher assessed chance to be profitable

Pros

• + Tirante has a stronger career record and more matches played, supporting a higher baseline win probability
• + Current market is decisive — avoids uncertain split prices and favors one side clearly

Cons

• - Market favorite's price is too short to offer positive EV under our projection
• - Kovalik's historical win rate and recent form do not justify the long odds as a value bet

Details

We compared the market prices to our modelled win probability. Thiago Agustin Tirante is the clear favorite on the available price (1.488, implied 67.2%) while his career win rate and recent form across surfaces support a true win probability nearer to 62%. Jozef Kovalik's career winning percentage (roughly 33%) suggests he is the underdog here; to justify backing Kovalik at 2.64 we would need to assign him an improbably high win chance relative to his track record and form. At our estimated probabilities the favorite is overpriced by the market (odds too short) and the home underdog does not offer sufficient upside to overcome his weaker record, so there is no positive expected value on either side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Tirante's substantially stronger overall win-loss record and higher match volume suggest a higher baseline true probability than Kovalik
• • Both players have grass experience, but Kovalik's overall win rate is low (around one-third) and recent results do not indicate a meaningful uplift on grass
• • Market prices heavily favor Tirante (implied ~67%), which exceeds our estimated true probability (~62%), removing value from the favorite