Juan Bautista Otegui vs Stefan Kostic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing the home player, Juan Bautista Otegui, at 1.17 because our estimated win probability (88%) exceeds the market-implied probability, producing a small positive EV (~+2.96%).
Highlights
- • Market implies ~85.5% for Otegui; we estimate 88%
- • Kostic is 0-3 with home-venue losses, increasing likelihood of another defeat
Pros
- + Clear experience advantage for Otegui (far more professional matches)
- + Kostic has no wins and has lost previously at this venue
Cons
- - Otegui's overall record (9-17) and recent losses create upset risk
- - Edge is modest; variance in low-sample matches can flip outcomes
Details
We view Juan Bautista Otegui as the clear favorite on clay versus Stefan Kostic based on experience and head-to-venue form. The market prices Otegui at 1.17 (implied ~85.5%), but after weighing factors — Otegui's greater match experience and Kostic's 0-3 start with losses at Kursumlijska Banja — we estimate a true win probability of 88%. That gives a small but positive edge vs the market: EV = 0.88 * 1.17 - 1 = +0.0296 (≈ +2.96% ROI). We acknowledge downside risk from Otegui's overall losing record and recent defeats, so the edge is modest but real at current prices.
Key factors
- • Market implied probability (1.17 -> ~85.5%) vs our estimated 88% -> small edge
- • Experience gap: Otegui (26 matches) vs Kostic (3 matches) favors Otegui
- • Kostic 0-3 record and two recent losses at Kursumlijska Banja (same venue)
- • Both players on clay; no surface mismatch to offset experience edge
- • Otegui's recent losses and overall 9-17 record increase variance/risk