Juan Carlos Prado Angelo vs Igor Gimenez

Highlights

• • Home price 1.08 implies ~92.6% win chance — appears overstated versus profiles
• • At our 25% estimate, the 7.50 price produces ~0.875 units EV on a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Large margin between market implied probability and our conservative estimated probability
• + Both players' records and surfaces played do not support a near-lock favorite

Cons

• - Limited detail in the provided research (no rankings, H2H, or injury specifics) increases uncertainty
• - Tennis underdog outcomes are high variance; heavy favorites still win frequently

Details

We find clear value on Igor Gimenez at the current 7.50 moneyline. The market prices Juan Carlos Prado Angelo at 1.08 (implied ~92.6% win probability), which is extreme given the available profiles: both players have similar career-sized samples (Juan 38-27, Igor 34-29) and have recent activity on clay and hard courts. There is no provided head-to-head or injury information that justifies such a one-sided price. Conservatively estimating Igor's true win probability at 25% (reflecting the comparable records, mixed recent form, and surface overlap), the 7.50 price yields a large positive edge (EV = 0.25 * 7.50 - 1 = 0.875). Even if our probability estimate is materially optimistic, the away side only needs ~13.3% true probability to breakeven at 7.50, which is well below our conservative 25% estimate. Therefore we recommend backing the away player as a value play at the quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Market implies an overwhelming favorite (1.08) despite comparable career win-loss records
• • Both players have experience on clay and hard surfaces — no clear surface edge shown in the provided data
• • No head-to-head or injury information in the research to justify the heavy favorite price