Highlights

• • Varillas favored but fair odds (based on our estimate) are ~1.613, not 1.32
• • Dutra's 3.20 quote would need >31.25% true chance to be profitable; we assess it lower

Pros

• + Varillas has higher-level wins and clay experience
• + Dutra's inconsistent recent results reduce clear upset probability

Cons

• - Varillas' recent challenger losses suggest form risk
• - Odds on favorite are too short to offer positive EV

Details

The market strongly favors Juan Pablo Varillas at 1.32 (implied ~75.8%). Our assessment, based only on the provided career and recent-match data, implies Varillas is the stronger clay player but not overwhelmingly so. Varillas' career win rate and clay experience support favoritism, but his recent results show losses in May 2025 at clay challengers; Daniel Dutra Da Silva also shows recent clay activity with mixed results into July 2025. Balancing career records (Varillas 396-287, Dutra 633-421), surface familiarity, and recent form, we estimate Varillas' true win probability at ~62%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.613, which is substantially higher than the quoted 1.32, so the current favorite price offers negative expected value. The away price (3.20) would require Dutra to have >=31.25% win probability to be positive EV; given relative quality and home/venue surface tilt we estimate Dutra below that threshold. Therefore no side shows value at current public odds.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~75.8% for Varillas at 1.32 but our model estimates ~62%
• • Both players have experience and wins on clay; recent form is mixed for both
• • No evidence in provided data of injury or a strong edge for the underdog at 3.20