Highlights

• • Implied probability of Varillas at 1.323 is ~75.5%, which outstrips our estimated 62% true chance
• • Negative EV at current price: approximately -0.18 per unit staked

Pros

• + Varillas is the market favorite and likely the safer match-win pick in real terms
• + Both players have clay experience so matchup is on a neutral-surface footing

Cons

• - Market price for Varillas (1.323) offers no value versus our probability estimate
• - Recent results shown for Varillas include losses on clay, reducing confidence in a strong edge

Details

We assess that the market strongly overprices the home favorite (1.323). Comparing career win rates from the provided profiles shows Daniel Dutra da Silva has a marginally higher overall win percentage (approximately 60%) than Juan Pablo Varillas (approximately 58%), and both have clay experience. Recent snippets show Varillas with losses in the spring clay events and Dutra with mixed clay results in midsummer; neither player displays dominant recent form to justify a ~75.5% implied chance for Varillas. Given the limited evidence and similar clay pedigrees, we estimate Varillas' true win probability materially below the implied 75.5%, producing negative expected value at the current moneyline. Therefore we do not recommend taking the heavily-shortened favorite at 1.323.

Key factors

• • Career win rates: Dutra da Silva marginally higher overall win percentage than Varillas
• • Both players have clay experience; recent form shows mixed results for each
• • Market implies ~75.5% for Varillas, which is not supported by the provided performance signals