Juan Bautista Otegui vs Marko Maksimovic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No bet — the favorite price for Maksimovic is slightly overpriced relative to our estimated probability, producing a negative EV; the underdog price doesn't offer compensating value either.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Maksimovic (~65.6%) exceeds our estimated 62%
- • EV at current favorite odds is negative (~-5.4%)
Pros
- + Maksimovic has better recent results and a win at this venue on clay
- + Market correctly favors the stronger short-term form player
Cons
- - Current favorite odds (1.526) do not offer value against our probability estimate
- - Underdog price (2.38) would require a much higher true probability than justified by form and records
Details
We find limited value in this market. Marko Maksimovic is the market favorite at 1.526 (implied win probability ~65.6%), supported by a larger sample of matches and a recent win in Kursumlijska Banja on clay. Juan Bautista Otegui has a weaker overall record and poor recent form on clay, which makes him the less likely winner despite the 2.38 price. After weighing surface, recent results, and overall records, we estimate Maksimovic's true win probability at 62.0%, which is below the market-implied probability. Using that probability, the expected value at the current favorite price (1.526) is negative (EV = 0.62 * 1.526 - 1 ≈ -0.0539), so there is no profitable value at available prices.
Key factors
- • Recent form: Otegui's recent results on clay are poor while Maksimovic has recent wins at the same venue
- • Head-to-head: no meaningful H2H available, so form and surface take precedence
- • Market implies a higher probability for Maksimovic (≈65.6%) than our estimated true probability (62%)