Juan Carlos Prado Angelo vs Igor Gimenez

Highlights

• • Market implied probability for Juan: ~88.4%; our estimate: 62%
• • Required odds for positive EV on Juan: >= 1.613 (current 1.132 is too short)

Pros

• + Juan has a slightly better career win rate which supports favoritism
• + Both players predominantly play clay so matchup is not heavily specialized

Cons

• - Quoted odds for Juan are heavily compressed and offer no value
• - Recent form for both players shows losses, reducing confidence in an extreme projection

Details

We compared the market price (Juan Carlos Prado Angelo 1.132 => implied ~88.4%) to our assessment of the likely outcome. Both players have similar ITF-level records (Juan 38-27, Igor 31-28) and both show recent losses on clay; there is no clear, overwhelming form or surface edge to justify an 88% win probability for Juan. We estimate Juan's true win probability around 62%, which implies fair decimal odds ~1.613. At the quoted price of 1.132 the expected value is strongly negative, so we do not recommend betting either side at current market prices.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~88% for Juan (1.132) which is far higher than our estimated ~62%
• • Both players have similar ITF records and recent clay results, limiting a strong edge
• • No injury or head-to-head information in the research to justify heavy favorite pricing