Juan Carlos Prado Angelo vs Lucca Pinto

Highlights

• • Home is a clear favorite by form and experience
• • Current odds (1.01) offer negative expected value versus our 93% estimate

Pros

• + Strong home candidate profile and superior career record
• + Opponent has limited wins and poor recent form

Cons

• - Market price for the favorite is too short to offer value
• - Small probability upsets in tennis mean we cannot justify backing the large underdog at 17.0

Details

We estimate Juan Carlos Prado Angelo is a clear favorite based on career volume (65 matches, 38-27) and the contrast with Lucca Pinto's limited and struggling record (22 matches, 6-16). The market price (Juan Carlos 1.01 implied win probability ~99.01%) requires an extraordinarily high subjective win probability (>99.01%) to be profitable. Using the available form and record data, we assign Juan Carlos a realistic win probability of 93.0%, which implies fair decimal odds of ~1.075. At the quoted 1.01, the bet has negative expected value (EV = 0.93*1.01 - 1 ≈ -0.061). Lucca's 17.0 quote implies a 5.88% chance, but even if we assign him a small upset probability, the required edge to back him at 17.0 is unsubstantiated by the provided data. Therefore there is no value on either side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Significant disparity in career volume and win-loss records (Prado Angelo 38-27 vs Pinto 6-16)
• • Recent results show Prado Angelo as the stronger performer on clay/hard surfaces
• • Market severely overprices the heavy favorite (implied probability ~99.01%) leaving no value