Juan Carlos Prado Angelo vs Mateus Alves
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Prado is the likely favorite based on records, but the current price (1.493) is too short versus our estimated true probability (~58%), so there is no value.
Highlights
- • Prado has a materially better career win rate and larger match sample
- • Current market odds understate the minimum fair price needed for positive EV
Pros
- + Home player has stronger win-loss record and greater match experience
- + Both players have experience on the likely surfaces, limiting unknown variables
Cons
- - Recent match snippets show recent losses for both players — form is not convincingly one-sided
- - Market favors the home player with a price that eliminates value
Details
We estimate Juan Carlos Prado Angelo is the stronger player based on career win rates (38-27 vs 21-28) and greater match volume, which suggests a higher baseline win probability. Normalizing those win rates yields an implied true probability in the upper 50s (we use 58%). At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.724. The current market price for the home player is 1.493, which is substantially shorter than fair value and produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.58*1.493 - 1 = -0.134). Therefore there is no value on the favorite at the available odds and we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Stronger overall record: Prado 38-27 vs Alves 21-28
- • Both players contest similar surfaces (clay/hard); no clear surface edge in the research
- • Market price (home 1.493) is shorter than our fair price (~1.724), creating negative EV