Highlights

• • Book overprices the favorite (Ficovich) vs. inferred matchup parity
• • Underdog odds (3.26) provide ~24% ROI per unit based on our estimate

Pros

• + Clear positive expected value at current market odds
• + Match-up is on a surface both players regularly play, reducing surface-based uncertainty

Cons

• - Limited detailed recent-form data and no H2H available increases model uncertainty
• - Tennis matches are high-variance; single-match outcomes can deviate substantially

Details

We estimate that the market is over-favoring Juan Pablo Ficovich: the book price of 1.346 implies ~74% while the available performance data (similar career win rates on hard courts, both recent losses at Winston Salem, and no clear H2H edge) suggests a much narrower gap. We conservatively assign Ficovich ~62% and Langmo ~38% true win probability. At Langmo = 38% and the current away moneyline 3.26 (implied ~30.7%), the away price offers positive edge after accounting for the book vig. EV = 0.38 * 3.26 - 1 = +0.239 (23.9% ROI per unit), so we recommend betting the away at current available odds. Odds used for EV: 3.26.

Key factors

• • Both players have similar career win rates and are comfortable on hard courts
• • Market favorite price (1.346) implies a probability well above a realistic edge
• • Current away odds (3.26) exceed our required breakeven (2.632) yielding positive EV