Judith Perello Saavedra vs Shannon Lam
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value: market favorite is priced too short relative to our modest edge estimate, so the bet offers negative EV.
Highlights
- • We estimate Shannon ~53% to win, market implies ~67%
- • Required decimal odds for value on Shannon are ~1.887; current quote 1.488 is overpriced
Pros
- + Market clearly favors one player, reflecting bettors' consensus (liquidity/price clarity)
- + Surface is known (clay), so any true edge would be easier to exploit if more data appeared
Cons
- - Current favorite price (1.488) is well below the breakeven threshold for our probability estimate
- - Available data is sparse and shows both players with similar records, increasing uncertainty
Details
The market prices Shannon Lam as a clear favorite (implied ~67% at 1.488) but the available performance data shows near-identical career records and limited distinguishing form on clay. We estimate Shannon is a modest favorite (≈53%) based on parity in records and no clear surface or injury edge; at that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.887. The current away price (1.488) is well below that threshold so it offers negative expected value (EV = p * odds - 1 ≈ -0.211). With sparse form differentiation, limited H2H, and both players having similar recent results, there is no profitable value at the quoted prices, so we recommend taking no side.
Key factors
- • Both players show similar career records and limited distinguishing form
- • Match is on clay but no clear surface advantage is evident in the provided data
- • Market heavily favors the away player; current price is below our fair threshold