Highlights

• • Ozerova's season and recent form are clear weaknesses.
• • Current market price of 1.72 exceeds our fair price (1.587).

Pros

• + Market offers a margin above our required odds for a profitable edge.
• + Away player has demonstrably poor recent form and low season win rate.

Cons

• - No profile or direct matchup data for the home player in the provided research increases model uncertainty.
• - Limited sample and potential unseen factors (surface preference, minor injuries) could swing outcome.

Details

We observe Anna Ozerova's season-level form is weak (10-21, ~32% win rate) with recent consecutive losses, which suggests she is a clear underdog regardless of surface. The market prices Julia Aleksandra Zuchanska at 1.72 (implied 58.1%). We estimate Zuchanska's true win probability at 63% based on the significant negative trend for Ozerova and absence of contrary information on the home player. At our probability (0.63) the fair decimal price is 1.587; the offered 1.72 therefore contains value. EV calculation: EV = 0.63 * 1.72 - 1 = 0.0836 (≈ +8.4% ROI). We note uncertainty because we have no direct H2H, surface breakdown for Zuchanska, or injury details for either player.

Key factors

• • Away's poor season record (10-21, ≈32% win rate)
• • Recent consecutive losses for the away player in early September
• • Market price (home 1.72) implies ~58% but our estimate is ~63%, creating positive edge