Highlights

• • Avdeeva estimated win probability: 35% (requires ≥2.857 odds to be +EV)
• • Current prices (Avdeeva 2.75, Tubello 1.407) yield slightly negative EV vs our estimates

Pros

• + Conservative probability assignment avoids overbetting on sparse data
• + Clear break-even thresholds provided if odds shift

Cons

• - Research lacks decisive information (H2H, surface performance, injuries) which increases uncertainty
• - Small market inefficiencies could exist but are not supported strongly enough to bet

Details

We find insufficient evidence in the provided research to justify an edge on either player. The market strongly favors Alice Tubello at decimal 1.407 (implied ~71.1%) while Julia Avdeeva is priced at 2.75 (implied ~36.4%). The supplied profiles are effectively identical and show no clear surface advantage, recent-form differential, injury news, or head-to-head information to materially shift probabilities away from the market. Conservatively, we estimate Tubello's true win probability at 65% and Avdeeva at 35% — slightly less extreme than the market for Tubello but not enough to create positive EV on either side at the current prices. Using our estimated 35% for Avdeeva, the min required decimal odds to justify a bet on her would be 2.857; current odds of 2.75 produce a small negative EV. Likewise, using our 65% for Tubello, the current favorite price is shorter than the break-even odds implied by our estimate, so no value exists there either. Therefore we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Provided profiles for both players are effectively identical with no differentiating recent form or injury data
• • Market strongly favors Tubello (1.407) with Avdeeva a sizeable underdog (2.75)
• • No head-to-head, surface advantage, or clear situational edge in the research to justify overruling the market