Highlights

• • Away price 2.27 yields +4.4% ROI at our 46% win-prob estimate
• • Market favourite appears inflated relative to the limited research data

Pros

• + Current odds exceed our minimum required odds (2.174) for value
• + No reported injuries or surface disadvantages in the provided research

Cons

• - Edge is modest (≈4.4%); outcome still volatile in a single match
• - Research lacks head-to-head data and detailed recent-match context — higher uncertainty

Details

We see the market pricing Avdeeva as a clear favorite (1.599 -> implied ~62.5%), but the research material shows both players with near-identical career records, surfaces played and recent results with no clear injury or form edge. With essentially symmetric profiles and no H2H advantage provided, the market favourite looks over-priced. Valuing Tikhonova around a 46% chance (0.46) produces positive edge at the available away decimal of 2.27: 0.46 * 2.27 - 1 = +0.044 (~4.4% ROI). We recommend the away side only because current odds (2.27) exceed our minimum required odds (2.174) for that probability; if odds compress below ~2.174 the value disappears. Key uncertainties are limited data granularity and no H2H; we therefore treat this as a modest, data-driven value play rather than a confident prediction.

Key factors

• • Market implies Avdeeva (~62.5%) but research shows near-identical player profiles and recent results
• • No injury or surface advantage reported for either player in provided data
• • Available away moneyline (2.27) crosses our value threshold for a ~46% win probability