Highlights

• • Away implied probability 90.91% vs our estimate 88% → negative EV
• • Fair decimal price for our estimate ≈ 1.136; market offers 1.10

Pros

• + Market clearly reflects a heavy favorite—low variance outcome likely but not sufficient for positive EV at current price
• + Conservative approach avoids backing a short-priced favorite without corroborating data

Cons

• - If our estimated probability is understated (true win prob >90.91%), value could exist but we lack evidence to assume that
• - Lack of surface, form, injury, and H2H info increases the chance our probability estimate is off

Details

The market strongly favors the away player at 1.10 (implied probability 90.91%). With no external data returned and using conservative assumptions, we estimate Philippa Faerber's true win probability at 88.0% (0.88). At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.136, meaning the available 1.10 is too short to offer positive expected value. Conversely, the home price of 6.25 implies ~16% win chance; under our estimate Julia Daroszewska's chance would be ~12% (1 - 0.88), so betting the long home price is also negative EV. Given the information gap on surface, form, injuries and H2H, we decline to recommend a side because neither market price offers positive expected value versus our conservative probability.

Key factors

• • No independent research data available; we use conservative assumptions rather than optimistic estimates
• • Bookmaker price 1.10 implies >90.9% certainty to be +EV; our estimate (88%) does not meet that threshold
• • Large favorite line and lack of surface/form/injury/H2H info increases model uncertainty