Highlights

• • Away implied probability (1.37) ~73% but our conservative estimate is 70%
• • EV at current best price (1.37) is negative (~-0.041), so we recommend no bet

Pros

• + Market prices are consistent with a clear favorite which likely reflects real strength
• + Conservative probability approach avoids over-committing without supporting data

Cons

• - No positive EV opportunities at quoted odds — both sides are priced against our estimates
• - Lack of surface, form, injury, and H2H data increases uncertainty in our probability estimates

Details

We compare the market prices to conservative true-win estimates given no additional data. Market-implied probabilities are ~73.0% for the away favorite (1.37) and ~34.7% for the home underdog (2.88), implying a market vig. Conservatively we estimate Camille Cheli (away) has a ~70% chance to win (0.70) — slightly lower than the market-implied ~73% to account for vig and unknowns — which requires a minimum fair decimal price of 1.429. At the current away price of 1.37 the expected value (EV = p * odds - 1) is negative (~-0.041), so there is no positive-value wager on the favorite. The home underdog would need a true probability of ~34.7% or higher to be attractive at 2.88; our conservative estimate for Julia Fix is ~30%, producing an even worse EV (~-0.136). Given both sides show negative EV at current prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market shows a strong favorite (away 1.37) and clear underdog (home 2.88) with ~7.7% implied vig
• • No external injury/form/H2H data available — we apply conservative probability adjustments
• • Our conservative true probability (70% for away) is slightly below market-implied, removing perceived value
• • Both sides produce negative EV at current widely-available prices