Highlights

• • Grabher's extensive career and superior resume create a high win probability
• • Current price 1.06 implies ~94.3%; our estimate ~96% yields ~1.8% ROI

Pros

• + Clear experience and sample-size advantage
• + Market price is slightly soft relative to our probability estimate

Cons

• - Edge is small and sensitive to misestimation or last-minute factors
• - Short sample and limited data on Cortez Llorca introduce uncertainty about potential improvement

Details

We view Julia Grabher as a clear class and experience favorite against Lucia Cortez Llorca: Grabher's long career (559-507 across 1066 matches) and much larger sample size vs Cortez Llorca's 31-match sample (10-21) imply a materially higher win probability than the market-implied 94.34% at 1.06. Both players show recent losses on comparable events, but the experience, broader surface history, and superior career win rate favor Grabher. We estimate Grabher's true chance at ~96.0%, which converts to a small positive edge versus the current moneyline (EV = 0.96 * 1.06 - 1 ≈ +0.018). The edge is modest and sensitive to uncertainty (opponent improvements, unknown match conditions), but at the quoted 1.06 decimal price this represents value by our model.

Key factors

• • Large experience and match-volume advantage for Grabher (1066 matches vs 31)
• • Career win-rate and longevity favor the home player in a lower-tier event
• • Bookmaker-implied probability (94.34% at 1.06) is slightly below our estimated true probability