Julia Konishi Camargo Silva vs Hibah Shaikh
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend the home player at 4.05 — the market overstates the away favourite and the home price represents strong value based on the parity in the supplied profiles.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~24.7% chance for home; our estimate is ~45%
- • At 4.05 the home selection has substantial positive EV
Pros
- + Large discrepancy between implied market probability and our estimated true probability
- + No injury or surface advantage for the away player evident in the provided data
Cons
- - Available research is limited and recent-match detail is sparse / partially duplicated
- - Underdog outcomes are higher variance — individual-match volatility is significant
Details
We find clear value on the home player. The market prices the away player at 1.20 (≈83.3% implied) despite both players showing nearly identical career records (home 10-22 across 32 matches; away 10-21 across 31 matches) and similar surface history. There are no injury notes or clear form advantages in the supplied research that justify such a heavy market lean. Given the parity in records and surfaces, we estimate the true win probability for the home player is substantially higher than the market-implied 24.7% (1/4.05). At the quoted home price of 4.05, even a conservative true probability estimate materially exceeds the break-even threshold, yielding positive expected value.
Key factors
- • Nearly identical career records and match counts — no clear skill gap in supplied data
- • Both players have similar surface experience (clay and hard) and recent results show no decisive edge
- • Market implies extreme favoritism for the away player (1.20) that the available research does not support