Highlights

• • Current odds (1.06) imply ~94% win chance
• • Our estimated win probability for the favorite is ~80%, requiring >=1.25 odds for value

Pros

• + Terziyska is the market favorite and likely the stronger player on paper
• + If additional information on the opponent revealed a much lower level, value could appear at higher odds

Cons

• - Current price (1.06) is too short to offer value against our estimated probability
• - Terziyska's poor recent record (10-21) and recent losses reduce confidence in her ability to justify >94% implied chance

Details

The market prices Julia Terziyska as an overwhelming favorite at 1.06 (implied ~94%). Our assessment—based only on the provided profile—assigns Terziyska a substantially lower win probability (~80%) because her recent season record is 10-21 with poor recent results, indicating vulnerability even against lower-tier opposition. At our estimated true probability the minimum fair decimal odds would be 1.25; the current price of 1.06 does not offer positive expected value (EV). Given the lack of any data on Anastasiya Zaparyniuk in the research, uncertainty remains high and the market price appears to compress that uncertainty into an unprofitable tiny line.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Terziyska (1.06) is ~94%, well above our estimate
• • Terziyska's season record 10-21 and recent losses indicate form concerns
• • No data provided for Zaparyniuk increases uncertainty and reduces confidence in the market price