Julia Adams vs Ayline Esina Samardzic

Highlights

• • Home price (1.30) implies an unrealistically high probability given the profiles
• • At our conservative 44% win estimate, away odds of 3.20 produce a positive EV

Pros

• + Strong value signal: required odds to be +EV are ~2.273; market offers 3.20
• + Both players' stats and surfaces do not justify heavy favoritism, supporting contrarian pick

Cons

• - Information is limited — no head-to-head or venue-specific data provided, adding uncertainty
• - Both players show poor recent form, increasing match volatility and risk of an upset

Details

We see clear market skew toward the home player (Julia Adams) with a 1.30 price implying ~76.9% win probability, which is not supported by the research. Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21), identical surface experience (clay and hard) and similarly poor recent form in the provided sample, so we estimate the true chance for Ayline Esina Samardzic to win at roughly 44%. That implies a fair decimal price of ~2.273, well below the current 3.20 offered for the away. Using the quoted 3.20 price produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.44 * 3.20 - 1 = +0.408), so the away is a value bet at current market odds.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and surface experience — no clear performance edge
• • Market heavily favors the home player (implied ~76.9%), creating mispricing versus balanced evidence
• • No meaningful recent-form or injury distinction in the provided research to justify the big market gap