Highlights

• • Estimated home win probability: 52.0% → fair odds 1.923
• • Current home price 1.769 yields negative EV (~-0.08) so we do not recommend betting

Pros

• + Market is competitive and prices available on both sides
• + Both players appear closely matched, simplifying a balanced probability estimate

Cons

• - No positive expected value at available decimal prices
• - Research provided lacks decisive form, injury, or surface advantage to justify taking an edge

Details

We see nearly identical player profiles and no clear edge from form, surface or H2H in the provided research. We estimate Julia Avdeeva (home) has a true win probability of 52.0% based on balanced career records and no decisive recent-performance advantage; that implies a fair decimal price of 1.923. Current market prices are Home 1.769 (implied ~56.5%) and Away 1.962 (implied ~50.97%), which include a bookmaker overround; after normalization the market implies ~52.6% for the home. Using our estimate (52.0%), the EV at the available home price 1.769 is negative (EV = 0.52*1.769 - 1 ≈ -0.080), and the away side is also negative using the complementary estimate (48.0% * 1.962 - 1 ≈ -0.058). Because neither side offers positive expected value versus our modeled probabilities, we recommend no bet. We therefore set min_required_decimal_odds for a home bet to 1.923; only prices above that would offer positive EV.

Key factors

• • Player profiles and recent-match data supplied are essentially symmetric with no clear form advantage
• • Market prices imply a slight favorite but include a bookmaker overround that removes apparent edge
• • Our modelled true probability (52%) is below the market-implied fair threshold for profitable home value