Julia Grabher vs Carson Branstine
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on Carson Branstine at 2.50 because the market underestimates her win chance versus Grabher; our model assigns her a ~45% chance, producing ~12.5% ROI at current odds.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Branstine is 40%; we estimate 45%
- • Positive EV at current away price (EV ≈ +0.125 per unit)
Pros
- + Price offers clear edge vs our probability estimate
- + Both players' form and surface history show little to separate them, supporting a closer true price
Cons
- - Small sample of comparable data and recent losses for both increase variance
- - No head-to-head or venue-specific performance data to reduce uncertainty
Details
The market prices Julia Grabher at 1.50 (implied 66.7%) and Carson Branstine at 2.50 (implied 40.0%). Our read of the research shows both players with nearly identical recent records (10-21) and similar surface experience (clay and hard), and no clear injury or H2H edge for either. That parity suggests the true matchup probability is much closer than the market implies. We estimate Branstine's true win probability at 45.0%, which is meaningfully higher than the market-implied 40.0% for the 2.50 price. At 2.50 decimal odds this creates positive expected value (EV = 0.45 * 2.50 - 1 = +0.125), so the away price represents value while the favorite price at 1.50 would require an implausibly high 66.7% true win probability to be +EV.
Key factors
- • Both players have almost identical recent records (10-21), suggesting parity
- • Market implies a large favorite (Grabher) without supporting performance gap
- • No reported injuries or H2H data to justify the big price gap