Highlights

• • Grabher's extensive experience and higher-level track record
• • Cortez Llorca's small sample size and subpar win rate make an upset unlikely

Pros

• + Positive EV at current price (≈+3.8% ROI per unit staked)
• + Clear mismatch in career experience and likely in match temperament

Cons

• - Low absolute payout for a favorite; variance from a single upset can still wipe returns
• - Grabher's recent minor form dip introduces some uncertainty

Details

We estimate Julia Grabher is a heavy favorite given her vast professional experience (1066 career matches) versus Lucia Cortez Llorca's limited sample (31 matches, 10-21). The market price of 1.07 implies a win probability of ~93.46%, but our assessment—accounting for the experience gap, broader surface experience, and Cortez Llorca's limited win rate—puts Grabher substantially higher at ~97%. We also moderately discount Grabher's very recent results (some recent losses) which prevents an even higher probability estimate. At our estimated true probability the price of 1.07 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.97*1.07 - 1 ≈ +0.038), so the home side represents value at current odds.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Grabher 1066 matches vs Cortez Llorca 31 matches
• • Opponent's weak overall record and limited pro track record (10-21)
• • Market odds (1.07) imply ~93.5% but our assessment is ~97%, creating value