Julian Cundom vs Thiago Cigarran
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices — the favorite's market price (1.60) overstates its true win probability in our view, producing a negative expected return; we recommend passing.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~62.5% for Cigarran; our estimate is ~55%
- • Cundom is unlikely to justify the 2.25 price given limited wins and form
Pros
- + Cigarran's bigger match sample and marginally better record give him the on-paper edge
- + Both players are clay players so surface mismatch risk is low
Cons
- - Recent results for both players are poor, increasing variance and uncertainty
- - Bookmaker margin reduces available value; favorite needs a substantially higher true probability to be +EV
Details
We assess Thiago Cigarran as the market favorite at 1.60 (implied ~62.5%) while Julian Cundom is offered at 2.25 (implied ~44.4%). Both players show limited recent success on clay; Cigarran has a larger sample (16-23 vs Cundom 5-8) and a modest edge in career win rate and experience, but neither player demonstrates strong form that justifies the heavy market probability on Cigarran. We estimate Cigarran's true win probability at ~55%, which implies fair decimal odds of ~1.818. At the available price of 1.60 the expected return is negative (EV = 0.55*1.6 - 1 = -0.12). Cundom would need a true win probability >44.4% to be +EV at 2.25, but his shorter track record and poorer recent results make that unlikely. Given these inputs, there is no value on either side at the current books.
Key factors
- • Both players primarily play on clay; surface advantage is neutral
- • Cigarran has a larger match sample and slightly better career win rate
- • Recent form for both players is weak, lowering confidence in any market edge