Julie Belgraver vs Daria Snigur

Highlights

• • Both players have similar records and recent results in the provided research
• • Home decimal 3.32 is well above our min required 2.222 for a 45% win probability

Pros

• + Strong numerical edge if true probability is near our estimate (45%)
• + High ROI at current market price (approx +49%)

Cons

• - Research dataset is thin and lacks decisive form or surface advantage details
• - Market may be correctly pricing unlisted factors (injury, matchup, practice form) not present in the provided sources

Details

We find value on Julie Belgraver (home) because the public market prices Daria Snigur as a heavy favorite (away 1.334 implied ~75%), yet the available career and recent-form research shows both players with essentially identical profiles (both listed 10-21 records and poor recent results). There is no clear performance edge in the provided data for Snigur that justifies a ~75% fair-win probability. Conservatively estimating a true win probability for Belgraver at 45% (and Snigur 55%), the market price on Belgraver at 3.32 offers positive expected value. We base this on parity in records and recent form in the supplied research, plus the fact that the implied probability embedded in the 3.32 price (30.1%) appears too low relative to the reasonable 45% we estimate from the available information. Using the quoted current odds for the home side (3.32) yields EV = 0.45*3.32 - 1 = +0.494 units (49.4% ROI). Because the dataset is thin and both players show weak recent form, our estimate is conservative; if Belgraver is closer to 50% true chance the value is even larger.

Key factors

• • Provided player profiles show near-identical career records (10-21) and weak recent form for both players
• • Market implies a ~75% win probability for Snigur (away) which is not supported by the supplied data
• • Current home price 3.32 implies ~30% win probability — below our conservative 45% estimate