Highlights

• • Market-implied favorite is the away player at ~67.6% after normalization
• • Home requires at least 2.985 decimal to be a value play vs current 2.89

Pros

• + We avoid taking a likely negative-expected-value bet in an information-poor situation
• + Clear threshold (2.985) identified if odds move in the bettor's favor

Cons

• - If unobserved factors favor the home player, our conservative probability may understate true edge
• - No additional data increases uncertainty and raises downside risk if we were to speculate

Details

We have no external form, injury, surface, or H2H data and must therefore rely on the market prices. The moneyline implies probabilities of ~34.6% for Julie Myatovic (2.89) and ~72.3% for Laetitia Sarrazin (1.382) including vig; after normalizing the book the market-implied win chances are roughly 32.4% (home) and 67.6% (away). Being conservative given the complete lack of additional information, we estimate Julie Myatovic's true win probability at 33.5%. At that probability the minimum fair decimal price for value on Myatovic is 2.985; the available home price of 2.89 is below that threshold and yields a negative expected value (EV ≈ -0.033). To recommend a bet we would need either a materially higher assessed probability for Myatovic or a higher market price; neither condition is met, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No external data available — we apply conservative estimates
• • Market shows a clear favorite (away) and a bookmaker overround (~6.9%)
• • Home needs odds ≥ 2.985 to be value given our probability estimate