Julie Myatovic vs Lyne Thach

Highlights

• • Market implies ~84.0% for Julie Myatovic (1.19)
• • Our conservative estimate is 75%, producing EV = -0.1075 (negative)

Pros

• + Clear decision based on value: market is overestimating the favorite relative to our estimate
• + Conservative approach avoids over-betting under high uncertainty

Cons

• - Lack of match-specific data increases uncertainty in the probability estimate
• - If unseen information (injury/news/H2H dominance) exists, our conservative estimate could be too low

Details

We have no external data for form, H2H, surface or injuries, so we apply conservative assumptions. The market price of Julie Myatovic at 1.19 implies a win probability of ~84.0%. Our conservative estimated true probability for the favorite, given the unknowns and lower-tier event context, is 75.0%. Using EV = p * odds - 1, the expected value at the current decimal price (1.19) is 0.75 * 1.19 - 1 = -0.1075 (a -10.75% ROI), so the market price is too short relative to our estimate and offers negative value. To justify backing the favorite at 1.19 we would need to believe her true win probability exceeds ~84.03%, which we cannot support with the available information. Therefore we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No independent data available on form, H2H, surface or injuries
• • Market-implied probability (1/1.19 ≈ 84.0%) is higher than our conservative estimate (75%)
• • At current odds the favorite is too short to provide positive expected value