Highlights

• • Conservative true win probability for home: 78%
• • Both market prices (1.19 and 4.25) produce negative EV against our estimate

Pros

• + Clear stance based on conservative probability to avoid overbetting on limited info
• + Calculations show required odds for home would need to be ~1.282 to break even

Cons

• - Analysis limited by lack of external research (surface, recent form, injuries, H2H)
• - If our conservative probability underestimates the favorite, small upside could have been missed

Details

We conservatively estimate Juliette Trunet (home) to be the stronger player but not to the degree implied by the 1.19 price. The market-implied probability for the home side is ~84.0% (1/1.19) but, with no external form/injury/H2H data available, we apply a conservative true probability of 78.0% for the home player. At that estimate the fair decimal price would be ~1.282, so the offered 1.19 is too short and gives negative expected value. The away price (4.25) likewise does not offer value against our estimated ~22% chance (required fair odds ~4.545). Therefore neither side presents positive EV at current widely-available prices.

Key factors

• • No external form, injury, or H2H data available — we use conservative assumptions
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.19) is ~84%, which exceeds our conservative 78% estimate
• • Away price (4.25) is shorter than our implied fair level for a 22% chance (~4.545), so no value there either