Highlights

• • Away priced 2.11 vs our fair odds ~1.923 — positive EV
• • Manzanera's greater match experience and clay wins underpin our probability edge

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current odds (≈9.7% ROI)
• + Stronger recent clay evidence and higher match volume suggest more reliability

Cons

• - Limited head-to-head and small-sample variance in ITF events increases outcome uncertainty
• - Porras may be undervalued due to surface specifics or local factors not fully captured in available data

Details

We find value on Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa (away). The market prices Julio Cesar Porras at 1.667 (implied ~60.0%) and Manzanera at 2.11 (implied ~47.4%). Given the research, Manzanera has significantly more match volume (54 matches vs 32) and a stronger recent record on clay (recent clay win at M15 Xativa and recent play on clay), while Porras shows limited recent success and two recent losses on hard. We estimate Manzanera's true win probability at ~52.0%, which translates to fair odds of ~1.923. At the available decimal price of 2.11 for Manzanera, the bet has positive expected value (EV ≈ 0.097). Key uncertainty factors include small-sample records and limited direct H2H data, so we assign a medium risk level, but the current market price offers a clear value edge for the away player.

Key factors

• • Manzanera has more match volume and a slightly better win record, implying greater consistency
• • Manzanera has recent clay results while Porras shows recent losses and limited form
• • Market overprices the home favorite (implied ~60%) creating a value opportunity on the away at 2.11