Highlights

• • Home priced 1.37 implies ~73% — likely too high
• • Away at 2.90 clears our required odds threshold (2.778) for value

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (EV ≈ +4.4%)
• + Market appears to overreact to Porras, leaving an exploitable underdog price

Cons

• - Both players show inconsistent recent results and small career sample — high variance
• - Edge is small; outcome variance on clay/ITF level can be large

Details

We see value on Tomas Curras Abasolo at 2.90. The market prices Julio Cesar Porras at 1.37 (implied ~73%), which overstates his edge given both players' modest ITF records and recent inconsistent form on clay/hard. Porras is marginally better on paper (17-15 vs 14-19) but both players have several recent losses and small sample career data, so a true win probability closer to 64% for Porras / 36% for Curras is more realistic than the market's 73% favorite pricing. At an estimated 36% chance for Curras, the break-even decimal price is ~2.78; the available 2.90 therefore offers positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Market implies Porras ~73% win probability which looks overstated given records and recent losses
• • Both players have limited match samples and inconsistent recent form, increasing uncertainty
• • Current away price (2.90) is above our break-even (~2.78) creating a small positive edge