Highlights

• • Saner has a losing overall record and recent losses in supplied match list.
• • Current price (1.15) implies a much higher probability than we estimate, creating negative EV.

Pros

• + Saner is listed as the market favorite, suggesting perceived advantage (unclear why).
• + If unknown opponent is significantly lower-ranked, Saner could still win comfortably.

Cons

• - Provided profile shows weak form (multiple recent losses) and a 10-21 record.
• - Insufficient information on Ashleigh Simes and match conditions increases uncertainty and risk.

Details

The market prices Julita Saner extremely short at 1.15 (implied ~87.0%). Our assessment, based only on the provided profile, assigns Saner a substantially lower true win probability because her career record is 10-21 with weak recent form (multiple recent losses). There is no provided information on Ashleigh Simes, H2H, or the match surface/venue specifics to justify such a heavy market lean. We estimate Saner's true chance around 60%, which yields a negative expected value at the quoted 1.15. Given the large gap between implied market probability and our estimated probability, there is no positive EV on the favorite at current prices and we therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Julita Saner career record is 10-21 with poor recent results
• • Market implies ~87% chance for Saner at 1.15, which looks overstated versus available form data
• • No usable data provided for Ashleigh Simes (H2H, ranking, form) and surface/venue are uncertain