Highlights

• • Market-implied probability: ~91.7% (1.09)
• • Our estimated true probability for the favorite: ~32.3% (based on 10/31 record)

Pros

• + Heavy market favoritism implies a short price with low variance if correct
• + Saner has experience on clay/hard, the surfaces noted in her profile

Cons

• - Career record and recent results indicate much lower win expectancy than the market price
• - Opponent data (Vlada Kozak) are unavailable, increasing uncertainty; market is likely mispricing one side

Details

We find no value on Julita Saner at the current 1.09 price. The market implies ~91.7% chance for the home win (1/1.09), but Saner's career record (10-21 across 31 matches) and recent form are poor; using her historical win rate as a baseline (10/31 ≈ 32.3%) gives a much lower true probability. Given the large gap between market-implied probability and our estimate, the favorite is severely over-priced by the market for value-seeking purposes. With no data on Vlada Kozak to suggest an extreme mismatch in Saner's favor, we decline to recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Julita Saner career record 10-21 (31 matches) -> baseline win rate ≈ 32.3%
• • Recent form shows multiple losses in 2025; no evidence of strong uptick in level
• • Market strongly favors home (implied ≈91.7%) but available data do not support that level