Highlights

• • Home odds 1.89 imply 52.9% but we estimate 55%
• • Expected ROI ≈3.95% on a 1-unit stake at current price

Pros

• + Clearer recent form and more matches played this season
• + Price offers a measurable edge vs our model probability

Cons

• - Small overall sample sizes and limited head-to-head data increase variance
• - Edge is modest; upset risk remains significant in lower-tier events

Details

We estimate Jumpei Yamasaki is the slight favorite based on a stronger recent record (16-13 vs 4-7) and more match play this season, both players competing on hard courts where they have experience. The market prices (Home 1.89 implied 52.9%) slightly undervalue Yamasaki relative to our estimated win probability of 55%, producing a small positive edge. We calculate EV = 0.55 * 1.89 - 1 = 0.0395 (≈3.95% ROI) at the available home price. Uncertainty comes from small samples and limited head-to-head data, so the edge is modest but actionable under a value-focused approach.

Key factors

• • Yamasaki has a substantially better season record and more matches played (16-13 vs 4-7).
• • Both players have recent activity on hard courts; form edge favors Yamasaki based on wins in recent events.
• • Market-implied probability for Yamasaki (≈52.9%) is below our estimated 55% true chance, creating value.