Highlights

• • Market implies Chen wins 38.5%; we estimate 43.0%
• • Positive expected value of ~11.8% at current odds 2.60

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge in value vs market price
• + Both players' profiles show parity, undermining the short home price

Cons

• - Small sample, limited data and recent poor form for both players increases uncertainty
• - No head-to-head or venue-specific advantage available in the research, so edge is based on parity rather than a strong positive factor

Details

We find value backing Meng Yi Chen (away) because the market heavily favors Junhan Zhang at 1.45 (implied 68.97%) despite both players having nearly identical career records (Zhang 10-22, Chen 10-21) and comparable recent form (multiple recent Challenger losses). The away price 2.60 implies a win probability of 38.46%, but given the near parity in form, surfaces played (both have experience on clay and hard) and no reported injuries or clear edge for Zhang in the provided research, we estimate Chen's true win probability at 43.0%. That produces positive expected value: EV = 0.43 * 2.60 - 1 = 0.118 (11.8% ROI on a 1-unit bet). The market appears to overstate the favorite; therefore the away side represents value at the supplied price.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records and recent form (10-22 vs 10-21), so a large favorite is not clearly justified
• • Market-implied probability for away (38.46%) is lower than our estimated true probability (43.0%), creating positive EV
• • No injury or surface advantage reported in the provided research to decisively favor the home player