Highlights

• • Implied probability at current price: ~1.30%
• • Our conservative estimate (1.5%) produces ~15.65% ROI

Pros

• + Large edge if our conservative upset probability is correct
• + Minimal stake needed for a high-return longshot exposure (high potential payout)

Cons

• - Recommendation is based on assumptions due to no match/injury/form data
• - Very low absolute win probability — outcome is high-variance and unlikely to occur

Details

We observe an extreme market price: Matteo Martineau is listed at 77.1 (implied probability ~1.30%). With no research sources available, we adopt a conservative base-upset probability of 1.5% for the underdog to reflect residual upset/retirement/variance risk inherent to tennis. At that estimated true probability the away line offers positive expected value because the market requires only ~1.297% to break even while our conservative estimate is 1.5%. Given the lack of matchup, injury, surface or form data, this recommendation is strictly a value play on a very large market discrepancy and carries substantial uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Extreme price disparity (away implied ~1.30%)
• • No external match/injury/form data available — conservative probability assumption used
• • Tennis has non-zero upset/retirement risk even in lopsided matchups