Highlights

• • Market implies ~70% for Rodionov, our estimate ~60%
• • Required fair odds for Rodionov are ~1.667; current 1.43 is too short

Pros

• + Rodionov is favored by the market and likely has match-level advantages not fully visible in the limited data
• + Both players are proven on hard courts, reducing extreme volatility from surface mismatch

Cons

• - Quoted favorite price (1.43) offers negative expected value versus our probability model
• - Research data is limited/mixed on recent form, increasing model uncertainty and risk of mispricing

Details

We find the market strongly favors the home player (Rodionov) at 1.43 implied (~70.0%), but the available player data does not support such a high probability. Rodionov's career win rate (286-232 ≈ 55%) and Bertrand's career record (222-150 ≈ 60%) indicate both are capable on hard courts and recent match snippets show both playing the same Cassis event. Given the limited and mixed recent-form evidence, a conservative estimated true probability for Rodionov is ~60.0%, which implies fair decimal odds of ~1.667. At the quoted 1.43 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.60*1.43 - 1 ≈ -0.142), so there is no value to back Rodionov at current prices. Similarly, Bertrand at 2.75 would require an estimated win chance of at least 36.36% to be fair; our view of the match does not raise Bertrand's chance that high relative to Rodionov to justify taking the underdog at those odds. Therefore we recommend no bet — neither side offers positive EV versus our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Career win rates: Rodionov ~55% vs Bertrand ~60% (based on provided records), indicating relatively close long-term form
• • Both players have experience on hard courts and both have recent matches at the same Cassis event — recent form is mixed/ambiguous
• • Market-implied probability (Rodionov 1.43 ≈ 70%) is notably higher than our conservative estimate (~60%), creating negative EV for the favorite