Highlights

• • Vacherot favored in-market with short price that eliminates value
• • Profiles and recent stats give only a small edge to Vacherot, not enough to overcome the book's margin

Pros

• + Vacherot has the stronger career win rate and serve indicators in the provided data
• + Both players have grass experience so surface is neutral for a value swing

Cons

• - Market price for Vacherot is too short relative to our fair estimate
• - Information is limited (no head-to-head, only brief recent-match snippets), increasing model uncertainty

Details

We compared the market prices to our estimate of each player's true win probability using the provided profiles and recent results. Valentin Vacherot is the market favorite at 1.629 and has a slightly superior career win percentage and serve indicators in the recent snippets, which supports a higher win probability than Jurij Rodionov. We estimate Vacherot's true win probability at ~58%; that implies fair odds of ~1.724. At the available price of 1.629 the bet on Vacherot has negative expected value (EV = -0.055), so there is no value on the favorite. Rodionov at 2.34 would require a true win probability of ~42.7% to break even; our read of the form and profiles does not justify raising his true probability above the market-implied level enough to produce positive EV. Given the small margins and limited differentiating information (no H2H, only brief recent-match snippets), we therefore recommend no bet — the market prices do not offer profitable value under our model.

Key factors

• • Vacherot has a slightly better career win percentage in the provided profiles
• • Both players have grass experience; serve numbers in snippets favor Vacherot
• • Market prices (1.629 vs 2.34) leave little margin for error — no clear overlay