Justin Boulais vs Pietro Fellin
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Pietro Fellin at 2.25 based on his grass experience and a better recent win rate; our estimated probability (48%) produces ~8% ROI at current odds.
Highlights
- • Away price 2.25 implies 44.4% chance vs our 48% estimate
- • Surface (grass) favors Fellin according to available profiles
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current widely-available price
- + Surface and record data point toward the away player
Cons
- - Small sample sizes and limited head-to-head/contextual data increase variance
- - Profiles show limited detailed match-level stats, lowering confidence
Details
We compare the market-implied probabilities to our view of each player's true chance. Market prices (Home 1.625 / Away 2.25) imply ~61.5% for Justin Boulais and ~44.4% for Pietro Fellin. From the research, Fellin has confirmed grass experience while Boulais's recorded surfaces do not list grass; Fellin also posts a winning record in a smaller sample (7-5) whereas Boulais is slightly under .500 (19-22). Given the surface advantage, the recent form balance, and Boulais's lack of documented grass results, we estimate Fellin's true win probability around 48%. At the current away price of 2.25 this yields positive expected value: EV = 0.48 * 2.25 - 1 = +0.08 (8% ROI). The market overprices Boulais as a ~61.5% favorite relative to our view and underprices Fellin, so we recommend the away moneyline at the available price. We note the sample sizes are small, so confidence is moderate and risk is not negligible.
Key factors
- • Fellin has documented grass-court experience while Boulais does not
- • Fellin has a better win-loss percentage in provided records (7-5 vs 19-22)
- • Market-implied odds favor Boulais more than our surface/form-adjusted estimate justifies