Highlights

• • Market price (1.38) implies ~72.5% chance; our estimate is 85%
• • Joao Portugal has no recorded wins and recent hard-court losses

Pros

• + Pronounced discrepancy between market-implied probability and our conservative true estimate
• + Opponent has no recorded wins and consistent hard-court struggles

Cons

• - Limited data on both players in the provided research increases model uncertainty
• - We lack direct H2H, injury, or full-context data for Justin Lyons which could alter the true probability

Details

We see value on the home moneyline (Justin Lyons) at 1.38. The market-implied probability for the home win is ~72.5% (1/1.38). Based on the available research, Joao Portugal is 0-5 in recorded professional matches with repeated losses on hard courts, indicating a very low baseline win expectancy. We conservatively estimate Justin Lyons' true win probability at 85%, which is meaningfully above the market-implied 72.5%, producing positive expected value. At our estimate the fair decimal price would be ~1.176; the offered 1.38 therefore represents value. We note uncertainty because the dataset for Portugal is small and we do not have detailed injury/H2H info for Lyons, so we keep the edge conservative.

Key factors

• • Joao Portugal 0-5 professional record with multiple hard-court losses
• • Market-implied home probability (~72.5%) is substantially lower than our conservative true estimate (85%)
• • Small sample size for Portugal increases uncertainty but his form and surface history point to a low upset chance