Justin Boulais vs Pietro Orlando Fellin

Highlights

• • Boulais career win-rate ~46% including hard courts
• • Current odds imply a much higher probability (64.5%) than our estimate

Pros

• + Boulais has documented hard-court matches and experience
• + Market clarity: prices are standard and widely available

Cons

• - Overall career record and recent form are below 50%, limiting upside
• - No usable stats or form data for Fellin in the provided research to exploit a mismatch

Details

We estimate Justin Boulais's true chance to win this Columbus hard-court match at about 47% based on his 19-22 career record (≈46% win rate) and documented experience on hard courts. The current home moneyline of 1.55 implies a 64.5% probability, which materially overstates his chances relative to our estimate. Using 0.47 as our model probability, the expected return at the quoted 1.55 is negative (EV = 0.47*1.55 - 1 ≈ -0.272). We also lack usable, recent comparative data for Pietro Orlando Fellin from the provided research, so we cannot justify switching the probability materially in favor of the market. Because neither side shows positive expected value at the available prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Boulais career record 19-22 (~46% win rate) with hard-court experience
• • Market implies 64.5% for Boulais (1.55), well above our 47% estimate
• • No opponent data provided to identify a countervailing edge