Highlights

• • Lajal's career win rate materially better than Engel's
• • Current price (1.476) just exceeds our minimum required odds (1.471) for positive EV

Pros

• + Small but positive expected value at available odds
• + Clear statistical advantage in career record and recent Challenger form

Cons

• - Edge is tiny (≈0.37% ROI) — sensitive to estimation error
• - No head-to-head or detailed match-up data in the research increases variance

Details

We compare market-implied probabilities to our assessment. The market prices Mark Lajal at 1.476 (implied win probability 67.7%) and Justin Engel at 2.74 (implied 36.5%). Based on the provided profiles, Lajal has a substantially stronger career win rate (49-25, ~66%) versus Engel (30-30, 50%), has recent wins at this Challenger, and both have experience on grass. We estimate Lajal's true win probability at 68.0%, slightly above the market-implied 67.7%, producing a small positive edge. There are no injury notes or head-to-head data in the research to materially alter this view, so at the widely-available price of 1.476 the small positive EV justifies recommending the away side.

Key factors

• • Mark Lajal's stronger career win-loss record (49-25 vs Engel 30-30)
• • Both players have grass experience; no injury concerns reported
• • Market-implied probability (67.7%) is marginally below our 68.0% true estimate