Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Bailly (1.07) ~93.5% vs our estimate ~92%
• • Underdog would need >14.3% true chance to be +EV at 7.00; we estimate much lower

Pros

• + Clear analytical edge: our probability model shows Bailly strong but not quite at market-implied levels
• + No hidden injury or form reversal in the provided data that would flip value to the underdog

Cons

• - Margin between our estimate and market price is small; outcomes are still sensitive to variance
• - Limited direct head-to-head / contextual tournament detail in the provided research increases uncertainty

Details

We view Gilles Arnaud Bailly as a clear favorite based on career form (47-21) versus Justin Schlageter (11-18) and recent results on clay; the market price for Bailly (1.07) implies a ~93.5% win probability. After assessing form, surface familiarity and sample sizes, our estimated true probability for Bailly is ~92.0%, which is strong but below the market-implied probability required to yield positive value at 1.07. That produces a small negative expectation (≈ -0.016) on the favorite. Conversely, Schlageter’s implied chance at 7.00 (≈14.3%) would require him to be substantially stronger than his record and recent results indicate; we estimate his true chance is well under that threshold. Therefore neither side represents positive expected value at the quoted market prices, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Large disparity in career records and recent form favoring Bailly (47-21 vs 11-18)
• • Both players have clay experience, but Bailly’s deeper Challenger-level results increase his true win probability
• • Market price for Bailly (1.07) implies a higher probability (~93.5%) than our estimate (~92%), removing value